Tuesday, July 20, 2010

Waiver Wire Awards

I have cracked the nut of the player transaction problem and have been able to draw some sweet gooey data out of it.  With his data, I have managed to draw some players out as stand-out free agents who, for whatever reason, have distinguished themselves.  Here they are!  Let them be happy!
The Eternal Optimist Award
When players are dropped from their teams, they sometimes laugh it off and say, "I'll take my 3 days off and then stay up really late to see whose team I end up on when I get claimed off of waivers at 4:30 in the morning."  4:30 comes and goes, and the player still remains available.  "Ain't no thing," he says, "Once the new week starts, I will make my way onto a good team and show them all how I do."  The comforting twilight of Sunday gives way to the harsh fluorescent sun rising on Monday morning and still, the player remains available.  Weeks pass and nothing happens; sure there may be a couple of interested teams looking at his stats, but surely there are better options available, maybe Julio Bourbon!  Some players see this and decide to hang 'em up for the season, but others, those rare few, hold out hope that they will eventually be playing again on a fake major league team.  And for a very few, their dreams come to fruition.
The winner of this first half season's eternal optimist, the player who has ridden the wire for the longest after being picked up and dropped, but then being picked up again is Chris Davis, the first baseman for the Texas Rangers.  After being drafted by the commish in the 11th round, Davis was dropped on April 14th in favor of high-OPSer Nick Johnson.  Davis languished on the waver wire for 87 days (and played in the minors) before being picked up again by the commish on July 10th over Russel Branyan.  As well as Davis' optimism helped him in getting back to the show, he waited only a few days before he was dropped again in a trade involving Kung Fu Panda.  Stay positive, Chris, maybe another team will take a chance on you.  
Runner Up:  Miguel Montero (Recovered from injury on the wire from 4/11 to 6/22, a layoff of 72 days)
Second Runner Up: Chris Coghlan (Roamed the wire from 4/14 until being picked up on 6/24, a layoff of 71 days)

The Channukah Award
Often, you pick up a player from the wire who is on a hot streak with the hope for a guy who will put up all star numbers for the whole season.  Very rarely, this actually happens, but much more frequently, the player will keep the flame lit for a few weeks and then cool off.  Some players inhabit the middle ground between these two extremes:  they keep their flames lit for far longer than you dared to dream, but didn't have the gumption to stick around for the whole season.  
The Channukah Award for the player who has been picked up and stuck around his team for the longest before being dropped again is Shawn Marcum, the pitcher for the Blue Kays.  After going through surgery and missing the previous season, Marcum was great from the start and was picked up by the commish right at the beginning of the season on March 24.  He managed to stay on the roster and contributing for 104 days before finally being dropped on July 6th for Madison Bumgardner.  That stink must be strong, though, as he was picked up again shortly thereafter by the commish.  
Runner Up:  Juan Rivera (Picked up by Judd on 3/24 over Lastings Milledge and dropped on 6/28 for David Ortiz, a tenure of 96 days)
Second Runner Up:  Dallas Braden (Picked up after pitching that perfecto game on 4/8 by Woo Woo over Aaron Harang and dropped on 6/21 for RA Dickey, a tenure of 74 days)
The Ugly Girl at the End of the Party Award
When one of your star players goes down and the time comes to search that waiver wire for a replacement, there seem to be a few players who are always there, just waiting to be picked up.  They are never good enough to be on a team for a long time, but they are good enough to be picked up for a short time; they are better than nothing, after all.  
There are 4 recipients of the Ugly Girl award, players who have been picked up and dropped the most times (involved in 6 transactions each).  They are the always streaky David Ortiz, the potential all star youngster Buster Posey, the reliable former Yankee Austin Jackson, and the ugliest of closers who still has his job, Bobby Jenks. 
The Rotating Door Jammer Award
The waiver wire is a harsh mistress.  Often, when choo-choo-choosing a player, we throw common sense to the wind and pick up an player made of "old typewriter parts," who had been great before and could do it again, or a young player who has put up great minor league numbers and just may be able to carry it through to the majors.  More often than not, players who are picked up are eventually dropped and their spot becomes a rotating spot for whoever is doing the best.  Rare are the players who are picked up on the wire and remain there for the whole season. 
The winner of the Rotating Door Jammer Award, the player who was picked up the earliest and remains on that team, is Casey McGehee who was picked up on April 2nd by Sabo and has held his spot in the roster since then.  
Runner Up:  Placedo Polanco and Vernon Wells (Tie), both picked up on April 5th by Ackbar and the commish, respectively.
Second Runner Up:  Kelly Johnson, picked up on April 13th by Andrew. 

Thursday, July 15, 2010

Why Carl Crawford is the Best Fantasy Player



As you can clearly see from this graphs, Carl Crawford is the one player who leads multiple unlinked quantitative scoring categories!  I mean, look at how he is the one big exception to the rules in those graphs!  Whereas his power peers are more chubby, like home plates, he is taller and more pointed, like an expecially angular shaped sperm shooting machine also known as a penis.  Miguel Carbonara may lead in the power hitting categories, but as it turns out, because there are so few steals each week, each one is precious and actually worth more than a HR, of which there are more.  I did many correlations of this that will not be shown here, but the benefits of hitting a whole bunch of HRs can be made up relatively easily by more plebian performance.  Moreover, it turns out that one of the strongest categorical correlations is a negative one between HRs and SBs, meaning that most of the time, when you get a guy to swipe them bagaloons, he does so at the price of HRs.  Carl, though, is able to hold up in both categories, meaning that not only do you get the speed upside, but you get no accompanying downside in power!  Amazing!!!!!!!!!!!!
What's that?  What methods did I use for this analysis you ask?  No!  You didn't ask!  There is no you!  There is only me.  In an empty room.  Alone with my beautiful numbers.