Projections!

There was a time, once, when I looked at math as the enemy.  I was in middle school, then, and I tried to be cool by disregarding all academics.  The conic sections, though, kept whispering in my large ears promising order and reason like a siren from that classic epic story, Saving Silverman.  "No!" I shouted like Mel Gibson, "I need a woman!"  Math was relegated to the prefabricated shed of my mind and trotted out only to more easily calculate the time that it would take to replenish my supply of seminal fluid.  Time passed, though, and I came to terms with my geekiness, and then it actually became cool to be smart in college.  I now wield the sword of math, brandish the shield of statistics, and tap two forrests of Excel in all of my ventures from the quick calculation of tips perhaps to the fantasy that is, well, fantasy baseball.

Here are the projections for our league (with all transactions up to 3/28/11 taken into effect) this year.  Rather than a simple roto calculation as was given to us during the draft, this calculation is a week-to-week H2H projection system based on a number of assumptions that you will probably argue with and then present no other way of calculation:
- All starters get 1 start per week
- All relievers get equal save chances each week (not equal to each other, but equal between weeks), those being the total number of games they are projected to appear in divided by 26 weeks.  This averages out to a little more than 2 innings per week.
- All players will put up their calculated at bat average (calculated by their total projections over their projected at bats) every day of the week.  In other words, no injuries.  Enjoy Timmyboz.
- Each week is the same, there are no ups and downs.

These numbers represent the number of times that you will win a category against another team.  So if you see a 6 below HRs, it means that you are projected to win the HR category in 6 of your 9 matchups. 




Leading to the overall projections:

A Case Study in Value: Ben Zobrist

Oh, hey there Ben. You look nice. I'll bet you are married to a Christian pop star.

Prior to drafts there are always players I will not own. Several examples in this year's pool are Jose Bautista, Chris Carpenter, and Jason Bay. In each case, there are realistic predictions that ensure each player leave the board at a (relatively) appropriate time - Bautista regresses but still hits 35, Carpenter wins 17 games and posts a strong ERA and WHIP, and Bay bounces back, hitting 15+ HRs and steals a chunk of bases - however, I am not going there. In the first 14 or so rounds, there needs to be some firm baseline for me to hang my proverbial hat on. In each of these cases, I see a shaky baseline - Bautista hits .240 with 23 HRs, Carpenter has an ERA of just under four, Bay scratches double digit HRs and has a terrible BA to boot - along with other, more fantastic risks, one important one being health. For those reasons, these are stocks that I am not touching, opting instead to allow them to help my team by pushing back players that I want.

Jose Bautista: Batting .350 when it comes to his fantasy.

But these are just some examples. The player that I am most fascinated by after this Tuesday's draft is Ben Zobrist. Taken by one of the more mercurial members of the league, Zobrist popped of the board at a whooping pick 58, or the sixth round, ahead of Martin Prado, Jimmy Rollins, and Rickie Weeks, not to mention a good number of high upside starting pitching. This same owner took Zobrist with the 31st pick in last year's draft, so there is something going on here. It might be fantasy obsession, but history suggests that this owner is only concerned with tiger blood and winning, and should not be doubted. He confesses to "loving a strong middle infield" and is always willing to reach for his targets, so perhaps he has always believed that Zobrist is on his way up and will out perform his past numbers along with the past numbers of the aforementioned players. For kicks, let's do some comparing:

Player	Runs	Home Runs	RBI	SB	BA	OPS	AB
A	48	8	41	17	0.243	0.694	350
B	100	15	66	5	0.307	0.809	599
C	77	10	75	24	0.238	0.699	541
D	112	29	83	11	0.269	0.830	651

The lines that stick out in a positive way are B and C. They are players that among the league leaders in Runs and have strong numbers in other areas. B is Martin Prado and D is Rickie Weeks, both 2B-eligible. A is Jimmy Rollins and despite the reduced ABs and high steals, there is a lot of risk here. Sure, if he hits 13 HRs and steals 30 bases, he is valuable, but his downward trends and increasing injury problems are just not for me.

C is our boy, Ben Zobrist.

His numbers compare most favorably to Rollins here, though I doubt Rollins bats .238 over 500+ ABs. 70/10/70? If you are willing to forgo a few steals, there are plenty of second basemen who will give comparable numbers ten rounds later. On the other side of this argument, in 2009 Zobrist hit 27 long balls, went 90/90, stole 17 bases, and hit a hair below .300. These numbers would make him - as he was drafted last year - a fourth round pick, no question. In fact, those numbers are better than several OFs that I would always (and did) take higher than Zobrist. (See: Pence, Hunter) Curiouser and curiouser.

Does anyone here know about Ben Zobrist's fantasy value?

And yet, there is one more ripple when it comes to the value of Ben Zobrist: He is RF-eligible. Now, any respectable owner is saying, "But come on, why would I play him in an OF spot?" To that I say, "I agree." Well, I used to agree. Sure, if you are someone who sees the importance of leaving the draft with some strong middle infield picks but have none through round five, go for it, take Zobrist at 58. It is a bold pick, but not totally insane. After all, the reason we play is to say 'I told you so,' and Jimmy Rollins just isn't the savvy pick that Zobrist might be. Still, even sticking to simple numbers and value, there is reason to believe that this pick - Ben Zobrist at 58 as a starting 2B - is a risk that can help win a championship. But wait! Check this out: The Ben Zobrist owner, beyond conventional wisdom, IS penciling him in as an outfielder, instead filling his MI spots with Troy Tulowitzki, Ian Kinsler, and Rafael Furcal.

The water grows murkier. Value is confusing.

What will 2011 hold for Ben Zobrist owners? Come on, nobody really knows and that is the fun of the whole thing, but after all of my number crunching, statistical remodeling, and efforts to crack the value code, this draft strategy has opened my eyes. If Ben Zobrist is taken 58th overall in order to fill your 2B or 2B/SS spot, I see little reason to get excited. However, by owning four MI players and having a strong backup for an oft-injured Kinsler or Furcal, this owner has covered some of the risks of his players and strategy, all while depleting the 2B/SS pool, which was thin to begin with. This is a strategy that I admittedly do not have numbers to justify, nor do I have the stomach to attempt, but it is a crafty manipulation of the markets on positions and a unique demonstration of a fantasy owner's desire to produce numbers from every position.

Ben Zobrist, I am watching you...

...and your Christian pop-star wife: