Projections!

There was a time, once, when I looked at math as the enemy.  I was in middle school, then, and I tried to be cool by disregarding all academics.  The conic sections, though, kept whispering in my large ears promising order and reason like a siren from that classic epic story, Saving Silverman.  "No!" I shouted like Mel Gibson, "I need a woman!"  Math was relegated to the prefabricated shed of my mind and trotted out only to more easily calculate the time that it would take to replenish my supply of seminal fluid.  Time passed, though, and I came to terms with my geekiness, and then it actually became cool to be smart in college.  I now wield the sword of math, brandish the shield of statistics, and tap two forrests of Excel in all of my ventures from the quick calculation of tips perhaps to the fantasy that is, well, fantasy baseball.

Here are the projections for our league (with all transactions up to 3/28/11 taken into effect) this year.  Rather than a simple roto calculation as was given to us during the draft, this calculation is a week-to-week H2H projection system based on a number of assumptions that you will probably argue with and then present no other way of calculation:
- All starters get 1 start per week
- All relievers get equal save chances each week (not equal to each other, but equal between weeks), those being the total number of games they are projected to appear in divided by 26 weeks.  This averages out to a little more than 2 innings per week.
- All players will put up their calculated at bat average (calculated by their total projections over their projected at bats) every day of the week.  In other words, no injuries.  Enjoy Timmyboz.
- Each week is the same, there are no ups and downs.

These numbers represent the number of times that you will win a category against another team.  So if you see a 6 below HRs, it means that you are projected to win the HR category in 6 of your 9 matchups. 




Leading to the overall projections: