Tuesday, March 20, 2012

The Orphan Categories: Saves



As I start to get into level 3 draft preparation, I have been parsing which rounds to target which guys with an eye to having a team that will be able to put up good numbers in each one of the 12 categories. To aid me in this pursuit, I have looked at who is projected to put up the best numbers in each category and when these players are being drafted. Two trends have started to make their presence known: the independence of steals and the differential calculus of relievers.
Looking at relievers in particular: the guys who come up as the tops in the categories are noticeably lower in overall ranking than their more potent position-mates. This is not as much of a surprise with closers than with speed guys, but it still makes you scratch your head. The top 5 relivers are Craig Kimbrel, Mariano Rivera, Jonathan Papelbon, John Axford, and Drew Storen. The highest amoung them is Craig Kimbrel at in the 6th round, Mo and Papelbon in the 8th, and then the rest after the 10th. Compare that with the top 5 starters, Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Felix Hernandez who are all going in the first 3 rounds. Of course, these guys will pitch fewer innings and so will be able to contribute less to the pitching staff than starters, but let us consider the implications of that for a second: is a good closer really worth so much less than a starter? What about 2? Perhaps 3? The top closer, Craig Kimbrel, is projected to put up a line of 108 Ks, an ERA of 2.29, and a WHIP of 1.11. Good numbers, to be sure, but only accrued in 71 IP. Compare these numbers to a single elite starter, Cliff Lee for example, who will have 204 Ks, an ERA of 2.89, and a WHIP of 1.07 over more than 3 times those innings, 221 IP. Looking at those two together gives a better idea of how little the reliever would contribute: if you had both of them together, the joint ERA would drop only 0.15 from Lee's 2.89 for a 2.74 ERA, and the K/9 would rise from Lee's 8.31 to 9.62, a far cry from Kimbrel's 13.69. It would take the top three closers to have an equal effect as a single elite starer. Craig Kimbrel, Mariano Rivera, and Jonathan Papelbon are together projected to have 240 Ks, an ERA of 2.49 and WHIP of 1.067 in a total of 195 IP. Indeed, it is clear that closers can contribute pretty exclusively to saves, and you must rely on your starters for the rest of the categories.

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