Pitchers: A New Look - HR Rate

So I have this big spreadsheet with all sorts of data from the 2011 campaign for pitchers that I was using for my previous post on the quality starts rule change, and I sit here looking at it and saying to myself, "Is 1 post all that I can really derive from such a wealth of data? So many columns were unused! So many metrics undiscovered and unreported on! There must be something more." Well, it turns out that there is more (yes, I know it is hard to believe that a huge spreadsheet could yield more than a pithy analysis of quality starts). Behold: Your More!


You know what is the worst? When you place a big take out order and you get home and, of the 10 people who are getting food, you are the only one whose order was forgotten. Or perhaps when you are going to sleep and you reach over to turn of the light, and you knock over your glass of water necessitating a lengthy clean up process. For the porpoises of this post, though, lets consider the case of when your pitcher is throwing a decent game, the bases get loaded up, and rather than hitting a sac fly or striking out, he gives up a ding-a-ling thus destroying his outing in one swing of the bat. Indeed, the dong is a complete force-multiplier for the both offense and the defense; one swing can boost up 5 hitting categories and very realistically destroy 3 defensive categories (even more now that quality starts are included in the scoring).
I looked at which pitchers had the highest ratio of HRs per Earned Runs thinking that the pitchers who had the highest HR/ER ratio would be the guys who would have most been hurt by the long ball. In essence, if these guys had the wind blowing in a little bit more or played with outfielders who timed their jumps a little better, their ERs would go down. The pitcher with the highest HR/ER ratio was the Reds' Bronson Arroyo (Bernie) who had a staggering 46 HRs to a still-pretty-high 112 earned runs. More interesting is the next guy on the list, the Tigers' Justin Verlander (Peachz) who gave up 24 HRs to only 67 earned runs. His last season was Ghengis Khan-ian in its murderous ferocity, and there was room for improvement. Oh, and he is a keeper. Thanks Justine! Another notable name at the top of the range are the Yankees newest acquisition, Hiroki Kuroda (Fooey) with 24 HRs to only 69 earned runs. Last week, you would have thought that his under-spoken-of 3.07 ERA could get even lower, but in the bandbox that A-Rod built, this number may go up. Others who got stung by the long ball are Josh Beckett (Dykstra), Jeremy Helleckson (Dykstra), Wandy (WooWoo), YoGa (WooWoo), and Theodore Roosevelt Lilly (Ackbar).
On the flip side, the Buccaneer Charlie Morton gave up a paltry 6 HR to 73 earned runs. The extreme ground-ballers will always limit their damage from loaded bases, but they will balance out this benefit with a lack of Ks. As our league favors power pitchers, guys like Morton or Wang will never find permanent homes on any teams. Matt Cain (Ackbar) only gave up 9 HR to 71 earned, followed by Derek Lowe (Bernie) with 14 HR to 105 earned, and Buzzsaw Billingsley (Allah) with 14 HR to 88 earned. These guys could see their ERAs rise this coming season, though they also could not. Who the hell knows.