Sunday, January 15, 2012

Quality Starts, Schmality Schwartz!

Good ol' Schmality. He was my lab partner in Orgo sophomore year. That guy could rotovap like nothing I have ever seen previously or since.
These new changes to the league are horrible! I mean, adding Chandler? Who is this guy? A decorative hanging light with branches for several light bulbs or candles? A female comedianne who has a new NBC sitcom whose title replaced the word "Vodka" with her first name? A town in Upper Hominy, NC? What's that off-screen voice? Oh, you said Chandler. I misheard you. That I am cool with. Welcome Chandler! You literally only need have a pulse to be a more active participant in the league than Andrew. Will you ever read these words? I doubt it. Why would you be any different than the rest of the human population.
Of course, the above few lines are in jest, I have no life threatening problems with the rules changes. I mean, I am not a fan, but I have a feeling that is more because of Newtonian physics (inertia and whatnot) than any real problem with them. Switching from wins to quality starts will make some pitchers get better, some get worse, the very notion of fantasy sports will be further cemented as having nothing to do with real life baseball and will be more based on individual performances than actual baseball outcomes. I am less interested in how the changes will affect the league than which players will see their values modified.
I looked at last year's pitching statistics for the real life MLB league and was able to extrapolate a few key findings that may change how you perceive the very reality in which you have grown comfortable.
Not surprisingly, this rule change will most benefit starters and disfavour relievers. The pitchers who would have most profited from this rule change are Matt Cain (an Ackbar) and R.A. Dickey (Never pitched an inning for our league). Both of these "pitchers" "pitched" 14 more quality starts "than" they turned in wins. Think about that in this coming draft: Matt Cain had a 2.88 ERA and should have had a lot more wins than he did while striking out a respectable 7.26 guys per 9. Next, Brett Myers was next with 12 fewer wins than quality starts next, followed by 5 guys with 11 (notably Tim Stauffer who I picked up for 3 spot starts, all of which went horribly, and Anibal Sanchez, who still was quite the waver wire pick up for the Omars. Imagine him with an extra 11 wins and all those K's. Indeed.).
Conversely, the reliever who will most suffer from this rule change is something called a "Matt Belisle" that somehow managed to acrue 10 wins without a single quality start. After that thing, Eddie "The Mooch" Mujica had 9 wins in relief, followed by a bunch of guys with 8 wins, most notably Mark Melancon who was also able to put up 20 saves for the Dykstras. Interestingly, John Lackey and Esmil Rodgers both has 3 more wins than quality starts meaning that they got quite lackey, er, lucky. Both spent some time on teams in the league (The Peachz and the Bernies, respectively). They were both horrible, and just when you thought it couldn't get any worse, they were actually worse than their stats indicated.
Beyond individual pitchers, one of the real consequences of this rule change is that we can no longer say, "pick up all Yankees pitchers, with their offense, they will win games if their pitcher puts in a quality start." Looked at more statistically, the teams who could most be counted on for producing wins from quality starts were the Red Sox and the Yankees, producing 88.4% and 84.5% of the wins that they had quality starts. In other words, Yankee and Red Sox pitchers will be less valuable this coming season than they were last. Conversely, the Colt 45s and Marlins formerly of Florida, presently of Miami only produced 44.3% and 48.8% of the wins as they did of quality starts. Not surprisingly, these two had two of the worst bullpens in the majors producing 55 and 50 decisions (wins or losses) last season. Along with the Cardinals, Bravos, and Reds all had 50 or more decisions coming from the pen. Without all those bullpen disasters, the pitchers on these teams should see their stocks rise marginally. The Dbacks and the Dodgers had the fewest decisions coming from the pen, though the meaning of this is obscured from my too-close-together-eyes. Did you know that I can only use 2 of the 7 microscopes in my lab because these are the only two whose eye pieces come close enough together to accommodate my cyclopean mug? God, I am a hideous goblin.

1 comment:

  1. Thanks for remembering! Don't forget about my mad skillz with the sep funnel!

    ReplyDelete